Reliance on scientists and experts during an epidemic: evidence from the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy
Research suggests trust in experts and authorities are important correlates of compliance with public health measures during infectious disease outbreaks. Empirical evidence on the dynamics of reliance on scientists and public health authorities during the early phases of an epidemic outbreak is limited. We examine these processes during the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy by leveraging data from Twitter and two online surveys, including a survey experiment. We find that reliance on experts followed a curvilinear path. Both Twitter and survey data showed initial increases in information-seeking from expert sources in the three weeks after the detection of the first case. Consistent with these increases, knowledge about health information linked to COVID-19 and support for containment measures was widespread, and better knowledge was associated with stronger support for containment policies. Both knowledge and containment support were positively associated with trust in science and public health authorities. However, in the third week after the outbreak, we detected a slowdown in responsiveness to experts. These processes were corroborated with a survey experiment, which showed that those holding incorrect beliefs about COVID-19 gave no greater -- or even lower -- importance to information when its source was stated as coming from experts than when the source was unstated. Our results suggest weakened trust in public health authorities with prolonged exposure to the epidemic as a potential mechanism for this effect. Weakened responsiveness to expert sources may increase susceptibility to misinformation and our results call for efforts to sustain trust in adapting public health response.
With Pietro Battiston and Ridhi Kashyap. Accepted at SSM-Population Health
Despite the volume of studies leveraging big data to explore socio-demographic phenomena, we still know little about the intersection of digital information and the social problem of intimate partner violence (IPV). This is an important knowledge gap as IPV remains a pressing public-health concern worldwide, with 35% of women having experienced IPV over their lifetime and cases rising dramatically in the wake of global crises such as the current pandemic. This study addresses the question of whether online data from Google Trends and Twitter might help reach these ``hard-to-reach” populations using Italy as a case-study. We ask the following questions: Can digital traces help predict instances of IPV in Italy? Is their predictive power weaker or stronger in the aftermath of crises such as COVID-19? Preliminary results suggest that digital data using selected keywords positively predict actual calls to helplines with their predictive power being stronger in post-crises periods.
With: Selin Koksal, Luca Maria Pesando, and Asli Ebru Sanliturk
US foreign aid restrictions, maternal and children’s health: Evidence from the "Mexico City Policy"
In this paper, we analyze the link between foreign aid for family planning services and a broad set of health outcomes. More specifically, we document the unequal health consequences of the so-called Mexico City Policy (MCP henceforth). This policy is implemented only when a Republican administration holds US presidency and restricts US funding for non-governmental organizations that provide information on or access to abortion abroad. Previous research has shown that MCP causes large disruptions in family planning services around the world, but its consequences for health outcomes remain largely underexplored. Using country-level data from 162 countries, we show that MCP is associated with higher maternal and neonatal mortality as well as HIV prevalence. These effects are stronger in countries more exposed to US aid shocks and weaker in countries in which girls' enrollment in school is higher. Furthermore, using individual-level data from 23 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, we show that under MCP women have less access to contraception, HIV testing, and in-person family planning services. Our findings highlight the importance of mitigating the harmful effects of MCP by lifting or redesigning MCP.
With: Kerim Can Kavakli
The Paradox of Parenthood and Happiness: Exploring the Role of the Brain
While both the conventional wisdom and the Second Demographic Transition theory suggest that having children is rewarding for individuals and increases their life satisfaction and happiness, the empirical literature across different disciplines has not yet found a clear answer on neither the direction nor the magnitude of the association between childbearing and happiness. Here we explore a possible mechanism that might explain the association between parenthood and happiness: the neuro-anatomical changes occurring to parental brains when transitioning into parenthood and the role played by empathy. After birth and two years afterwards women show
reduced gray matter volumes in regions subserving social cognition and in particular the amygdala, insula, precuneus, superior
temporal and medial prefrontal areas. Also fathers experience changes in their brain, although of smaller size.
These changes also affect affective domains, such as empathy and social emotions. At the same time, the literature documents that emotional distress and the perception of other people's pain activate neural structures (including the anterior cingulate cortex, anterior insula, and the amygdala) that are also involved in the direct experience of pain. As a result, we expect to find a negative relationship between parenting and happiness mediated by an increase in the ability to feel others' pain. We test this hypothesis by leveraging the richness of the UK Biobank Dataset including the collection of genome-wide genetic data and resting and task-based fMRI of around 100000 participants aged 40--69 years old. Through the developed world, the high level of childlessness and the decrease in family size among those having children are timely and pressing policy issues. The fact that, in many although not all industrialized societies, parents report lower levels of happiness than childless adults might possibly fuel the perception that having children is not rewarding thus reducing the desire to become parents. Understanding the reasons behind the usually observed negative correlation between parenthood and happiness is, therefore, crucial.
With: Nicola Barban, Carlo Reverberi, and Maria Sironi